BlockByte Weekly: Job Openings Down by 40% - Why We're Cautious Going into Q4

Thanks for reading The BlockByte Weekly, where we summarise the key updates in crypto over the last week and provide our perspective on what you need to know as an investor.​
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Weekly Snapshot

• BTC: US $115,826 (-0.4%)
• Crypto Market Cap: US $3.98T (-0.8%)
• Gold: US $3,684/oz (+1.4%)
• S&P 500: 6,664 (+1.1%)
• ASX 200: 8,773 (-0.4%)
• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.13% (+0.04%)

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Key Stories This Week

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US Job Openings Fall While Stocks Diverge Sharply

Earlier this week the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed that US job openings are 41% down from their post-pandemic highs, highlighting a cooling in labour demand. The chart below shows a stark divergence between what is typically a strong correlation: job openings and the S&P 500.

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Our take:

The widening gap between the labour market and stock valuations underscores the disconnect between Wall Street and the real economy. Investors should treat market strength cautiously—corporate earnings may eventually reflect weaker demand. If we see a pullback in equity markets, this will likely spill over into digital assets to a larger degree. While we are not exiting the market, it could be worth taking some profits and building a position in cash to prepare for a potential pullback.

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Typically, digital assets have their strongest returns going into Q4 (October, November, December), also known as a 'santa rally'. Average bitcoin returns since 2013 have been 85% for the fourth quarter.

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Markets Flat on 'Priced In' Rate Cuts

Digital assets rose modestly by 0.85% after the Federal Reserve announced a 25 bps rate cut on Thursday (AEST), lowering the benchmark rate to 4.00–4.25%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell attributed the move to a softening labour market, noting that job creation appears below the breakeven pace to maintain employment levels:

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“I can no longer say [that the labour market is] very solid.”

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Our take:​
This cut had been fully priced in, and markets are already looking ahead to the next possible move on 28 October. Beyond rate changes, the broader macro backdrop remains more telling—labour is weakening, inflation remains sticky, and fiscal imbalances are deepening. In this climate, bonds are losing their appeal, and both gold and Bitcoin continue to offer compelling hedges against currency debasement.

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​Solana Rallies as Galaxy and Forward Industries Accelerated Treasury Accumulation

Solana rallied by around 10%, before retracing to end the week flat. Large-scale treasury activity and renewed institutional interest appears to be driving recent upward volatility. Galaxy Digital moved 3.1 million SOL (US $724M) off Binance and Coinbase, in a transaction linked to Forward Industries—a Nasdaq-listed firm backed by Galaxy—which is building a Solana-focused treasury.

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Forward filed for a US $4 billion at-the-market equity sale managed by Cantor Fitzgerald, aimed at funding SOL accumulation. The company has already raised US $1.65 billion, with Galaxy alone contributing over US $306 million in a single day. Forward now holds US $1.6 billion in Solana, making it the largest corporate treasury holder of the asset.

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Our take:​
The institutional treasury race for Solana is picking up steam ahead of expected spot ETF launches from major issuers like BlackRock and Fidelity, likely from mid-October. With relatively low market cap concentration and high on-chain activity, SOL could see outsized gains if this trend continues. For now, it appears to be the lead altcoin benefitting from the next wave of structured institutional access.

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Tron's Share of Stablecoin Supply in Decline

Tron's share of the stablecoin supply has been in steady decline since July 2025 when it peaked at US $82.5B, dropping to US $77.2B. Over the same time period, Ethereum's share of stablecoin supply has grown from US $140B to US $163B. If we look at the most recent month, we can see that over US $5.5B of stablecoin supply has left the Tron network.

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Our take:

Ethereum's native fees have dropped significantly following recent upgrades, making them on average cheaper than Tron's by about eight cents per transaction. We think this could spell a potentially negative catalyst for Tron's price if more money continues to revert away from the network.

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Until next week,
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James

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James Brannan
Managing Director
BlockByte
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BlockByte does not provide financial advice. We provide a personalised brokerage service with tailored support, research and secure custody for investing in digital assets. Reach out to our team to discuss how we can help.