US Economy Slows on Weak Jobs Data, Gold Surges, Bitcoin May Follow

James Brannan

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Thanks for reading The BlockByte Weekly, where we summarise the key updates in crypto over the last week and provide our perspective on what you need to know as an investor.

Weekly Snapshot

  • BTC: US $110,292 (+1.8%)
  • Crypto Market Cap: US $3.75T (+0.9%)
  • Gold: US $3,586/oz (+4.9%)
  • S&P 500: 6,481 (-0.1%)
  • ASX 200: 8,871 (-1.2%)
  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.07% (-0.13%)

Key Stories This Week

Gold Reaches New All-Time High Amid Weak Jobs Report and Incoming Inflation Data

Gold surged to a new all-time high of US $3,600 / oz this week as a weaker than expected US jobs report signalled a slowing US economy. Only 22,000 jobs were added in August—far below the expected 75,000—and previous months were revised sharply lower. The data has solidified market expectations of a Fed rate cut on 17 September, with bond markets pricing in further easing into year-end. Yet despite these dovish signals, Bitcoin failed to rally, sticking to US $110,000 as traders eyed technical resistance and upcoming CPI data next week that is expected to show inflation remains sticky.

Bitcoin % gains (LHS) and Gold % gains (RHS)

Our take: Bitcoin often lags gold's price rallies by a month or two, showing a high degree of correlation albeit significantly more volatility to the up and downside. Gold’s recent breakout reflects rising investor concern over stagflation—economic slowdown coupled with persistent inflation. During these periods in history, investors typically flock to safe-haven assets to protect their purchasing power.

Crypto investors should be watching the same indicators. If inflation data confirms stickiness, risk assets, particularly altcoins, may continue to struggle despite rate cuts, while traditional safe-haven assets like gold and possibly Bitcoin, continue to grind higher.

1M BTC Held by Corporates, Demand Outpaces Supply by 6.3x

Public companies now hold over 1 million Bitcoin, according to BitcoinTreasuries, marking a significant milestone in institutional adoption. In just the past two months, 28 new corporate treasuries purchased ~140,000 BTC, roughly a year’s supply of new Bitcoin mined. Overall, institutional demand is now outpacing supply by more than 6.3x.

Top 10 bitcoin treasury companies

Our take: Bitcoin rewarded to miners for validating transactions on the network is halved every 4 years (an event known as the halving). Historically, this date coincides with rising prices as a similar level of demand is met by less supply.

However, the impact of the halving is diminishing. Since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin's inflation rate is now 0.84% per year (3.125 BTC per 10-minute block), down from 50 Bitcoin per 10-minute block in 2009. You can see on the chart below that a few months after each drop in the blue line (mining rewards per 10-minute block), the price (white line) tends to jump.

With institutional demand outpacing supply changes by an order of magnitude, we could be entering into a new era of price exploration, with previous models and assumptions based on halving cycles no longer aligning with expectations.

UK Millionaire Exodus Accelerates—Why Bitcoin Is Back on the Radar

Britain is set to lose a record 16,500 millionaires in 2025, more than any other country globally. The departure is being fuelled by sweeping tax reforms, including the removal of the “non-dom” regime and higher inheritance levies introduced in the October 2024 budget.

The removal of the non-dom regime means all UK residents—regardless of their home domicile—are subject to UK tax on worldwide income. With 30-year bond yields topping 5.6%—the highest since 1998—and rising fiscal uncertainty, investors are reallocating wealth to safer, more flexible jurisdictions.

Wealth shifts globally as taxes rise, laws tighten, and nations like Italy, Saudi Arabia, and Portugal benefit.

Our take: The exodus reflects a broader global trend: high-net-worth individuals are seeking self-sovereign, mobile stores of value. Bitcoin and gold offer investors geopolitical neutrality, 24/7 liquidity, and tax-resilient structures. As traditional safe havens lose their appeal, digital assets are becoming an integral part of wealth preservation strategies.

Bitcoin Whale Rotates US $4 Billion into Ethereum

Earlier this week, a dormant Bitcoin whale rotated nearly US $4 billion into Ethereum, selling 6,000 BTC and accumulating 145,000 ETH. In total, over half of the wallet’s original $5B BTC stack has now been converted to ETH. This follows recent ETH treasury allocations from firms like BitMine Technologies, The Ether Machine, and SharpLink Gaming. Spot ETH ETFs also saw $3.87B in August inflows, outpacing Bitcoin’s ETF flows.

Top 10 Ethereum holdings by company

Our take: Institutional interest in Ethereum is real—but so are the risks. While ETH is up 28% YTD, it faces growing competition from faster, lower-cost chains like Solana and Tron. Layer 2s are also capturing an increasing share of Ethereum’s activity and fee revenue. Ethereum remains central to the digital asset ecosystem, but over allocating from BTC to ETH may be premature from our perspective.

Until next week,
James

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